Manhattan’s residential market closed out 2025 in what industry analysts are calling a “Goldilocks” market, not too hot, and not too cold, but just right for activity to steadily improve. That phrase comes straight from Miller Samuel’s latest quarterly report for Douglas Elliman, which shows a notable return in sales momentum across the borough’s co-ops and condos. The Real Deal
Sales Picked Up in Q4
In the final quarter of the year, Manhattan recorded more than 2,600 closed deals, a roughly 5% increase year-over-year, with co-ops outpacing condos in transaction volume for the first time in over a year. The Real Deal
This shift was powered in part by declining mortgage rates, which eased about 60 basis points since summer. Lower borrowing costs helped draw back rate-sensitive buyers into co-ops and more affordable units, especially as luxury and cash-heavy segments dominated earlier in the year. The Real Deal
More Activity Across the Board
The uptick in sales wasn’t limited to one property type:
- Co-ops saw a 7% increase in closed deals, with roughly 1,500 units traded.
- Condos rose by about 3% year-over-year, with approximately 1,200 transactions recorded.
- Median prices remained resilient: roughly $825,000 for co-ops and $1.7 million for condos. The Real Deal
This balanced surge contributed to the “just right” characterization of the market, where activity increased without overheated bidding wars or inventory surges. The Real Deal
Inventory Still Tight, Especially at the Top
While overall listings dipped modestly, luxury inventory, defined as the top 10% of co-op and condo listings, fell sharply, down about 15% year-over-year, outpacing the broader market’s 4% inventory drop. This continued strength at the high end reflects sustained demand among deep-pocketed buyers, particularly those less sensitive to mortgage rates. The Real Deal
Notably, overall Manhattan co-op and condo inventory levels hit their lowest point since 2017, underscoring how limited supply remains a factor supporting price stability. The Real Deal
Cash Sales Still Dominate
Despite the increased participation from mortgage-dependent buyers toward the end of the year, cash deals continued to dominate. In the fourth quarter, about three out of every four sales were all-cash transactions, marking one of the strongest cash shares in at least a decade. The Real Deal
What This Means for Buyers and Sellers in 2026
This “Goldilocks” finish to 2025 offers some useful market cues:
- Buyers may benefit from slightly better affordability and more choice in the mid-market, particularly if mortgage rates continue drifting lower.
- Sellers still enjoy pricing support, especially in the luxury segment where inventory remains limited.
- Cash-ready buyers continue to wield leverage, particularly in competitive sectors of the market.
Overall, the market appears balanced rather than bifurcated, with both entry-level demand and high-end activity contributing to a healthier finish to the year. That’s welcome news for anyone watching Manhattan real estate after the slower mid-year months and the drag of economic uncertainty.
Related reading: How Government Shutdowns Impact the Real Estate Market (NYC Edition).
