Manhattan Closed 2025 With a “Goldilocks” Market — What That Really Means for Buyers and Sellers
Manhattan’s residential market closed out 2025 in what industry analysts are calling a “Goldilocks” market — not too hot, and not too cold, but just right for activity to steadily improve. That phrase comes straight from Miller Samuel’s latest quarterly report for Douglas Elliman, which shows a notable return in sales momentum across the borough’s co-ops and condos. The Real Deal
Sales Picked Up in Q4
In the final quarter of the year, Manhattan recorded more than 2,600 closed deals, a roughly 5% increase year-over-year, with co-ops outpacing condos in transaction volume for the first time in over a year. The Real Deal
This shift was powered in part by declining mortgage rates, which eased about 60 basis points since summer. Lower borrowing costs helped draw back rate-sensitive buyers into co-ops and more affordable units — especially as luxury and cash-heavy segments dominated earlier in the year. The Real Deal
More Activity Across the Board
The uptick in sales wasn’t limited to one property type:
- Co-ops saw a 7% increase in closed deals, with roughly 1,500 units traded.
- Condos rose by about 3% year-over-year, with approximately 1,200 transactions recorded.
- Median prices remained resilient: roughly $825,000 for co-ops and $1.7 million for condos. The Real Deal
This balanced surge contributed to the “just right” characterization of the market — where activity increased without overheated bidding wars or inventory surges. The Real Deal
Inventory Still Tight, Especially at the Top
While overall listings dipped modestly, luxury inventory — defined as the top 10% of co-op and condo listings — fell sharply — down about 15% year-over-year, outpacing the broader market’s 4% inventory drop. This continued strength at the high end reflects sustained demand among deep-pocketed buyers — particularly those less sensitive to mortgage rates. The Real Deal
Notably, overall Manhattan co-op and condo inventory levels hit their lowest point since 2017, underscoring how limited supply remains a factor supporting price stability. The Real Deal
Cash Sales Still Dominate
Despite the increased participation from mortgage-dependent buyers toward the end of the year, cash deals continued to dominate. In the fourth quarter, about three out of every four sales were all-cash transactions, marking one of the strongest cash shares in at least a decade. The Real Deal
What This Means for Buyers and Sellers in 2026
This “Goldilocks” finish to 2025 offers some useful market cues:
- Buyers may benefit from slightly better affordability and more choice in the mid-market, particularly if mortgage rates continue drifting lower.
- Sellers still enjoy pricing support — especially in the luxury segment where inventory remains limited.
- Cash-ready buyers continue to wield leverage, particularly in competitive sectors of the market.
Overall, the market appears balanced rather than bifurcated, with both entry-level demand and high-end activity contributing to a healthier finish to the year. That’s welcome news for anyone watching Manhattan real estate after the slower mid-year months and the drag of economic uncertainty.